The 8th Emissions Gap Report, published by UN Environment (UNEP) estimates the potential contribution short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including HFCs, could make in the global effort to keep the planet’s warming well below 2°C. Two impacts of the Kigali Amendment are reduction in direct refrigerant emissions (HFCs) and likely improvements in energy efficiency.
Full compliance with the Kigali Amendment to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol has the potential to decrease HFC emissions by 61% and prevent between 0.05 and 0.09°C of warming by 2050.
In addition to efforts to avoid direct emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, additional indirect CO2e mitigation is likely through parallel improvements in the energy efficiency of refrigeration and air-conditioning appliances and equipment. Past phase-outs under the Montreal Protocol have catalysed significant improvements in the energy efficiency of appliances. One reference found that full compliance with the Kigali Amendment could reduce global electricity consumption by between 0.2 percent and 0.7 percent over the period 2018 to 2050, due to the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies.
Reducing these short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, which are methane, tropospheric ozone, black carbon, and HFCs) will limit the rate of short-term warming and, when sustained and combined with CO2 reductions, will help limit long-term warming, which is the ultimate aim of closing the emissions gap.
For further information about the effect of the Kigali Amendment see EFCTC Learn About Effects of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on the Climate Impact of HFCs.